A Decision Support Model to Determine the Contribution of Urban Region in the National Target Total Fertility Rate

This paper proposes a decision support model to determine the contribution of urban region in the National Target Total Fertility Rate using analytical hierarchical Process (AHP). The proposed model supports in regional sustainability developing regarding family planning programs by determining and reducing the contribution of each governorate in Urban region of TFR and its fertility rate taking into consideration its socioeconomic context including women education level, precent of young women, infant mortality, age at first marriage, women working status, spouse level of education, family income and place of residence. The AHP is employed to determine the contribution of each governorate in the national target TFR and determine the most important and effective criterion within each governorate. These criteria include women educational level, women employment status, place of residence, family income and spouse level of education. All assessments of selected criteria are assessed using AHP by five experts’ opinions in the domain of family planning to reflect its impact and contributions into governorate TFR. The proposed model is implemented in urban region of Egypt to disaggregate the national TFR into regional TFR to achieve its required reduction level. The obtained results showed that the proposed model performed well in reducing the regional level of TFR according to reduction of governorate TFR.